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Cognitive State as Behavior Signal: Synapse Parameter Predictive Validity in a 1,743-Hour Multi-Agent Panel

Chen, Ho Yiing · 2026-05-08 · Zenodo

doi:10.5281/zenodo.20083802 · PDF

Abstract

This paper reports the first systematic empirical test of cross-time predictive validity for the synapse parameter framework underpinning a personal cognition layer. Over a 127-hour continuous window (2026-05-02 to 2026-05-08) in the Lobster Observatory Substrate—a Mandarin-language multi-agent LLM substrate of 20 agents grounded in a live consumer prediction ecosystem—14 internal cognitive parameters were recorded at hour t paired with 10 behavioral outcome metrics at hour t+1 for every agent–hour pair, yielding 1,743 panel observations and 140 parameter–outcome correl

Chen, Ho Yiing (norika) · Independent Researcher, Taiwan · ORCID 0009-0006-6816-9891